The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

13 25.1%

Next is 12 at 22.4%. The venues differ most on 13 (Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 27%), a 1.5-point gap.

13 25.1%12 22.4%11 19.4%14 and above 12.7%10 10.7%3 others 9.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
13
25.1%
Polymarket 25.5%(24.4% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 27%(25.3% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
13
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
25.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

12
22.4%
Polymarket 23%(22% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 24%(22.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
22%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
12
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

11
19.4%
Polymarket 19.5%(18.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 21%(19.7% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
11
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 18¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

14 and above
12.7%
Polymarket 14.5%(13.9% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 13%(12.2% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
14+
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
14 and above
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

10
10.7%
Polymarket 12%(11.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 11%(10.3% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
10
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

9
6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 6.3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
9
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.3¢.

Below 8
2.2%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 2.3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below 8
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

8
1.5%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
8
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the State of Texas
Show full rule comparison
  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 13
  • 12
  • 11

Live prices for 13

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?". 13 leads at 25.1%. Next is 12 at 22.4%. $75K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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