The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$67K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 210 99%

Next is At least 214 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 210
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 210
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 214
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 214
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 218
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 218
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 222
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 222
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 226
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 226
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 230
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 230
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 234
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 234
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 238
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 238
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 242
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 242
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 246
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 246
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
At least 250
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 250
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 254
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 254
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 258
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 258
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 210
  • At least 214
  • At least 218

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?". At least 210 leads at 99%. Next is At least 214 at 96%. $67K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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