The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$261K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

8 35%

Next is 9+ at 28.4%. The venues differ most on 9+ (Polymarket 27%, Kalshi 30%), a 3.0-point gap.

8 35%9+ 28.4%7 24.7%6 10%Below 6 0.9%3 others 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
8
35%
Polymarket 36%(34.8% fair)polled, 27s agoKalshi 36%(35% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
34.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
8
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 34¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

9+Arb
28.4%
Polymarket 27%(26.1% fair)polled, 27s agoKalshi 30%(29.2% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
9+
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
26.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
9
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
29.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 28¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

7
24.7%
Polymarket 26.5%(25.6% fair)polled, 27s agoKalshi 25%(24.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
25.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
24.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

6Arb
10%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 9.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
6
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 9.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Below 6
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 6
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
0.5%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
10
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
10
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
11
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
11
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 9+ on Polymarket at 28¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the State of Virginia
Show full rule comparison
  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 8
  • 9+
  • 7

Live prices for 8

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?". 8 leads at 35%. Next is 9+ at 28.4%. $261K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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