The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5.0M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Below 193 33.5%

Next is 198-202 at 16.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Below 193 33.5%198-202 16.3%203-207 14.3%193-197 13.4%208-212 8%6 others 14.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Below 193
33.5%
Kalshi 35%(33.5% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 193
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$853K
Trade this on Kalshi
198-202
16.3%
Kalshi 17%(16.3% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
198-202
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$274K
Trade this on Kalshi
203-207
14.3%
Kalshi 15%(14.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
203-207
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$263K
Trade this on Kalshi
193-197
13.4%
Kalshi 14%(13.4% fair)polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
193-197
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$355K
Trade this on Kalshi
208-212
8%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
208-212
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$250K
Trade this on Kalshi
218-222
4.8%
Kalshi 5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
218-222
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$631K
Trade this on Kalshi
213-217
4.7%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
213-217
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$319K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 237
1.6%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 237
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$491K
Trade this on Kalshi
223-227
1.5%
Kalshi 1.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
223-227
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$606K
Trade this on Kalshi
228-232
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
228-232
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$493K
Trade this on Kalshi
233-237
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
233-237
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$421K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below 193
  • 198-202
  • 203-207

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?". Below 193 leads at 33.5%. Next is 198-202 at 16.3%. $5.0M has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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