The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$102K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

At least 182 87%

Next is At least 186 at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 182
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 182
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 186
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 186
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 190
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 190
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 194
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 194
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 198
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 198
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 202
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 202
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 206
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 206
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 210
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 210
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 214
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 214
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 218
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 218
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
At least 222
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 222
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 226
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 226
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 234
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 234
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 230
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 230
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 182
  • At least 186
  • At least 190

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?". At least 182 leads at 87%. Next is At least 186 at 77%. $102K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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