The Prediction Markets

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2 58%

Next is 3 at 56%. The venues differ most on 2 (Polymarket 31%, Kalshi 28%), a 3.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Kalshi
3
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
2Arb
30%
Polymarket 31%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 28%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

1
7.6%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
1
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

0
7.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
0
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

4
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 2 on Kalshi at 29¢, sell on Polymarket at 30¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Seat counts depend on when races are called; venues use different settlement deadlines for uncalled seats.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2
  • 3
  • 2

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?". Above 2 leads at 58%. Next is 3 at 56%. $45K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Iowa in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Iowa US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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