The Prediction Markets

How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?

Closes
Oct 31, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$63K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 500 86%

Next is Above 600 at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 500
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 700
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 700
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,000
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,000
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,100
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,100
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,200
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,200
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,300
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,300
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,400
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,400
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Idaho Department of Water Resources

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 500
  • Above 600
  • Above 700

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?". Above 500 leads at 86%. Next is Above 600 at 81%. $63K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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