The Prediction Markets

How many jobs added in October?

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

100k+ 30.8%

Next is 0 to 25k at 21.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

100k+ 30.8%0 to 25k 21.2%50k to 75k 14%75k to 100k 13.2%25k to 50k 12%2 others 8.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
100k+
30.8%
Polymarket 32%(30.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k+
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
30.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
0 to 25k
21.2%
Polymarket 22%(21.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $376 (3.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
0 to 25k
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
21.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26.6¢
Sell Yes
17.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$376 (3.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
50k to 75k
14%
Polymarket 14.5%(14% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
50k to 75k
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
75k to 100k
13.2%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $641 (6.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
75k to 100k
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
25k to 50k
12%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k to 50k
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
25k to 0
4.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k to 0
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
25k
4%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 100k+
  • 0 to 25k
  • 50k to 75k

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many jobs added in October?". 100k+ leads at 30.8%. Next is 0 to 25k at 21.2%. $24K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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