The Prediction Markets

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

1 51.3%

Next is 0 at 30.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1 51.3%0 30.8%3 9.8%2 6.9%5+ 1.1%4 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1
51.3%
Polymarket 50%(51.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
51.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$275K
Trade this on Polymarket
0
30.8%
Polymarket 30%(30.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
30.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$501K
Trade this on Polymarket
3
9.8%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
2
6.9%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
5+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$276K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: volcano.si.edu

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1
  • 0
  • 3

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?". 1 leads at 51.3%. Next is 0 at 30.8%. $1.2M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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