The Prediction Markets

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 120 99%

Next is Above 140 at 72%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 120
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
140-159
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
78.1¢
Sell Yes
63.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
14
67.8%
Polymarket 82.8%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 23.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $224 (2.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
14
Last price
82.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
68.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
14
Last price
23.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$224 (2.24x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
5
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Polymarket
5-6
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
5-6
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$120K
Trade this on Polymarket
15
26.3%
Polymarket 26.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
15
Last price
26.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 145
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
120-139
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 150
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
16
5.2%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 19.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
16
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
16
Last price
19.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$254 (2.54x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 160
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$185K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Kalshi
200 or more
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
200 or more
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 190
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
17+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
17+
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
7-8
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
7-8
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$165K
Trade this on Polymarket
9-10
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
9-10
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
11-12
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
11-12
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
13-14
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
13-14
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
15-16
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
15-16
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: spacex.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Aviation Administration, SpaceX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 120
  • Above 140
  • 140-159

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 120 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?". Above 120 leads at 99%. Next is Above 140 at 72%. $1.6M has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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