The Prediction Markets

How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026?

Closes
Jan 24, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

250 or more 99%

Next is 500 or more at 72%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
250 or more
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
250 or more
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
500 or more
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
500 or more
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
750 or more
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
750 or more
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
1k or more
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
1k or more
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CDC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 250 or more
  • 500 or more
  • 750 or more

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026?". 250 or more leads at 99%. Next is 500 or more at 72%. $5K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 24, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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