The Prediction Markets

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$150K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

December 31 72.5%

Next is 400-500k at 60.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
December 31
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
400-500k
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
400-500k
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
100 to 499
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
100 to 499
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
500 to 999
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
500 to 999
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1000 or more
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
1000 or more
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
500-600k
12.4%
Polymarket 12.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
500-600k
Last price
12.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
300-400k
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
300-400k
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
50 to 99
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
50 to 99
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
200-300k
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
200-300k
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
900k-1m
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
900k-1m
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
1m
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1m
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
600-700k
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
600-700k
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
200k
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
700-800k
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
700-800k
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
800-900k
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
800-900k
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ice.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, The New York Times, Department of Justice

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • 400-500k
  • 100 to 499

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list December 31 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?". December 31 leads at 72.5%. Next is 400-500k at 60.5%. $150K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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