The Prediction Markets

How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$30K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 40 96%

Next is Above 35 at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 40
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 45
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 45
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 65
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 65
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Donald Trump

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 40
  • Above 35
  • Above 45

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms?". Above 40 leads at 96%. Next is Above 35 at 94%. $30K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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