The Prediction Markets

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

Starts in 11 daysKickoff
Traded
$47K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

2 40.2%

Next is 3 at 27.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

2 40.2%3 27.7%1 11.8%4 10.5%5 5%2 others 4.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2
40.2%
Polymarket 38%(40.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
2
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
40.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
3
27.7%
Polymarket 26.2%(27.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $353 (3.53x)
Polymarket
Contract
3
Last price
26.2%
Fair, margin removed
27.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28.3¢
Sell Yes
24.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$353 (3.53x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
1
11.8%
Polymarket 11.1%(11.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
1
Last price
11.1%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
10.5%
Polymarket 9.9%(10.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
4
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
5
5%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
6+
2.6%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
6+
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0
2.2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
0
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2
  • 3
  • 1

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?". 2 leads at 40.2%. Next is 3 at 27.7%. $47K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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