The Prediction Markets

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$6.2M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 52 38.7%

Next is 52 at 19.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Above 52 38.7%52 19.8%50 13.2%51 10.4%49 5.6%5 others 12.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 52
38.7%
Kalshi 41%(38.7% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 52
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
38.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
52
19.8%
Kalshi 21%(19.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
52
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
19.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
50
13.2%
Kalshi 14%(13.2% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
50
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$418K
Trade this on Kalshi
51
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
51
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$421K
Trade this on Kalshi
49
5.6%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
49
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$382K
Trade this on Kalshi
48
4.8%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
48
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Kalshi
47
3%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
47
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$444K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 45
2%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 45
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$673K
Trade this on Kalshi
46
1.8%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
46
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$412K
Trade this on Kalshi
45
0.7%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
45
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$386K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 52
  • 52
  • 50

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?". Above 52 leads at 38.7%. Next is 52 at 19.8%. $6.2M has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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