The Prediction Markets

How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Closes
Jan 3, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$64K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 10 96%

Next is At least 11 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 10
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 21s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 11
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 21s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 11
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 13
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 13
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 14
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 14
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 15
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 15
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 17
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 17
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 19
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 19
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
At least 20
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 21
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 21
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 10
  • At least 11
  • At least 12

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?". At least 10 leads at 96%. Next is At least 11 at 96%. $64K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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