The Prediction Markets

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

170-189 49.1%

Next is 190-209 at 37.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

170-189 49.1%190-209 37.9%210-229 6.2%230+ 3.6%170 3.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
170-189
49.1%
Polymarket 50.5%(49.1% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
170-189
Last price
50.5%
Fair, margin removed
49.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
190-209
37.9%
Polymarket 39%(37.9% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
190-209
Last price
39%
Fair, margin removed
37.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
210-229
6.2%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
210-229
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
230+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
230+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
170
3.2%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
170
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 170-189
  • 190-209
  • 210-229

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?". 170-189 leads at 49.1%. Next is 190-209 at 37.9%. $16K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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