The Prediction Markets

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 6 99%

Next is Above 7 at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 6
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 22s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
140-159
67.1%
Polymarket 67.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 78.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
67.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
78.1¢
Sell Yes
56.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
4
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 26 more outcomes
Above 145
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
120-139
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
180-199
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 160
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$185K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Kalshi
200 or more
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
200 or more
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Polymarket
6
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
8
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
8
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
9
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
9
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
10 or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
10 or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
1 or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1 or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
2
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
7
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: spacex.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Aviation Administration, SpaceX, SpaceX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 6
  • Above 7
  • Above 120

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 6 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many SpaceX launches in 2026?". Above 6 leads at 99%. Next is Above 7 at 99%. $1.5M has traded across 36 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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