The Prediction Markets

How many Texas counties will James Talarico win in 2026?

Closes
Dec 7, 2026, in 32 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

At least 20 99%

Next is At least 24 at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 20
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 24
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 24
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 26
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 26
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 36
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
At least 42
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 20
  • At least 24
  • At least 26

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Texas counties will James Talarico win in 2026?". At least 20 leads at 99%. Next is At least 24 at 84%. $1K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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