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Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
40+ times91%91%90¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)40+ times91%Kalshi 91%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
40+ times
91%
91%
90¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
40+ times
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 40+ times
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $3K
35+ times90%90%88¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)35+ times90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
35+ times
90%
90%
88¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
35+ times
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 35+ times
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $4K
45+ times90%90%87¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)45+ times90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
45+ times
90%
90%
87¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
45+ times
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 45+ times
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $3K
50+ times81%81%81¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)50+ times81%Kalshi 81%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
50+ times
81%
81%
81¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
50+ times
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 50+ times
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $5K
55+ times72%72%61¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)55+ times72%Kalshi 72%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
55+ times
72%
72%
61¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
55+ times
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 55+ times
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $4K
60+ times64%64%50¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)60+ times64%Kalshi 64%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
60+ times
64%
64%
50¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
60+ times
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 60+ times
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $2K
70+ times60%60%47¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago54¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $185 (1.85x)70+ times60%Kalshi 60%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
70+ times
60%
60%
47¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
54¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
70+ times
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 70+ times
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $4K
65+ times53%53%49¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)65+ times53%Kalshi 53%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
65+ times
53%
53%
49¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
65+ times
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 65+ times
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $4K
75+ times46%46%46¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)75+ times46%Kalshi 46%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
75+ times
46%
46%
46¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
75+ times
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 75+ times
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $3K
85+ times20%20%4¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)85+ times20%Kalshi 20%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
85+ times
20%
20%
4¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
85+ times
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 85+ times
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
80+ times16%16%33¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)80+ times16%Kalshi 16%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
80+ times
16%
16%
33¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
80+ times
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 80+ times
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $1K
90+ times12%12%9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)90+ times12%Kalshi 12%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
90+ times
12%
12%
9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
90+ times
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 90+ times
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
95+ times12%12%7¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)95+ times12%Kalshi 12%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
95+ times
12%
12%
7¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
95+ times
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 95+ times
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $670
100+ times2%2%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)100+ times2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
100+ times
2%
2%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
100+ times
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 100+ times
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $687
105+ times2%2%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3821 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)105+ times2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
105+ times
2%
2%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3821 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
105+ times
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105+ times
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 40+ times
- 35+ times
- 45+ times
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during his show?". 40+ times last traded at 91%. Next is 35+ times at 90%. $39K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 19, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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