The Prediction Markets

How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

Closes
Dec 15, 2026, in 52 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 10 99%

Next is At least 13 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 10
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 13
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 13
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 19
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 19
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 25
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 28
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 28
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 31
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 31
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 35
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 35
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
At least 46
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 10
  • At least 13
  • At least 16

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?". At least 10 leads at 99%. Next is At least 13 at 96%. $8K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets