The Prediction Markets

How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?

Closed
Oct 13, 2026
Traded
$14K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 13, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 9 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 369 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 9 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 369 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 6 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 369 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6 million
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 15 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 15 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18 million
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18 million
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 21 million
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 21 million
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 25 million
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25 million
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30 million
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30 million
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 35 million
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 35 million
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 369 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 15 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Netflix

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 9 million
  • At least 12 million
  • At least 6 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?". At least 9 million last traded at 99%. Next is At least 12 million at 99%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Oct 13, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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