The Prediction Markets

How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 6 million 99%

Next is At least 9 million at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 6 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6 million
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 9 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 9 million
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12 million
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12 million
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gladiator II
48.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 56.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gladiator II
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gladiator II
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Animals
34.1%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 39.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Animals
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Animals
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 15 million
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 15 million
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacrifice
5.8%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sacrifice
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sacrifice
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
Primate
3.1%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Primate
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Primate
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Evil Dead Burn
2.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 3.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evil Dead Burn
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Evil Dead Burn
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
2.3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
At least 18 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 21 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 21 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doing Life
1.2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doing Life
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Doing Life
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 25 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 25 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 30 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 35 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 35 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: netflix.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Netflix

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 6 million
  • At least 9 million
  • At least 12 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 6 million for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?". At least 6 million leads at 99%. Next is At least 9 million at 98%. $51K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets