The Prediction Markets

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

90B–$100B 41.1%

Next is 40B–$50B at 11%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

90B–$100B 41.1%40B–$50B 11%30B 10.4%80B–$90B 10.3%100B+ 10.2%4 others 17%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
90B–$100B
41.1%
Polymarket 42.2%(41.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
90B–$100B
Last price
42.2%
Fair, margin removed
41.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Polymarket
40B–$50B
11%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
40B–$50B
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
30B
10.4%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
30B
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Polymarket
80B–$90B
10.3%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
80B–$90B
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$703
Trade this on Polymarket
100B+
10.2%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
100B+
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
70B–$80B
5.7%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
70B–$80B
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
60B–$70B
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
60B–$70B
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
30B–$40B
4%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
30B–$40B
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$669
Trade this on Polymarket
50B–$60B
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
50B–$60B
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90B–$100B
  • 40B–$50B
  • 30B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?". 90B–$100B leads at 41.1%. Next is 40B–$50B at 11%. $11K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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