The Prediction Markets

How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least $175,000 96%

Next is At least $150,000 at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least $175,000
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $175,000
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $150,000
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $150,000
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $200,000
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $200,000
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $225,000
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $225,000
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$827
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $250,000
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $250,000
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $275,000
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $275,000
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $300,000
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $300,000
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $325,000
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $325,000
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $350,000
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $350,000
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $375,000
28.5%
Kalshi 28.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $375,000
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $400,000
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $400,000
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox News, The Information, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least $175,000
  • At least $150,000
  • At least $200,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How much will the Tesla Roadster cost?". At least $175,000 leads at 96%. Next is At least $150,000 at 95%. $7K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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