How strong will Vance be?

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How strong will Vance be?". Category 1 or above leads at 96.5%. Next is Category 2 or above at 88%. $4K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Vance (NHC designation EP222026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Vance in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Vance never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes". Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Vance will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Vance dissipates. If Vance has not dissipated by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Vance in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Vance's intensity published after Vance dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Vance dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Vance by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.

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