The Prediction Markets

Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 36 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Cheng Chao-fang 66.2%

Next is Hsu Hsin-ying at 31%. The venues differ most on Hsu Hsin-ying (Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 25%), a 7.5-point gap.

Cheng Chao-fang 66.2%Hsu Hsin-ying 31%Chu Ting-yu 2.6%Chen Chien-hsien 0.1%Lin Szu-ming 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cheng Chao-fang
66.2%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%(70.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cheng Chao-fang
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cheng Chao-fang
Last price
67%
Fair, margin removed
70.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 61¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Hsu Hsin-ying
31%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%(26.4% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hsu Hsin-ying
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hsu Hsin-ying
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
26.4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 31¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

Chu Ting-yu
2.6%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chu Ting-yu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chen Chien-hsien
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chen Chien-hsien
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Lin Szu-ming
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lin Szu-ming
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Taiwan
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cheng Chao-fang
  • Hsu Hsin-ying
  • Chu Ting-yu

Live prices for Cheng Chao-fang

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner". Cheng Chao-fang leads at 66.2%. Next is Hsu Hsin-ying at 31%. $26K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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