The Prediction Markets

Hsinchu County magistrate election winner?

Closes
Nov 28, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Chen Su-yueh 91.5%

Next is Tsai Yi-yu at 90%. The venues differ most on Hsu Hsin-ying (Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 25%), a 9.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Chen Su-yueh
91.5%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chen Su-yueh
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tsai Yi-yu
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tsai Yi-yu
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cheng Chao-fang
65.5%
Polymarket 65%polled, 34s agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cheng Chao-fang
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cheng Chao-fang
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 61¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Hsu Hsin-ying
31.8%
Polymarket 34%polled, 34s agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hsu Hsin-ying
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hsu Hsin-ying
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$810
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 40¢.

Wei Ping-cheng
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wei Ping-cheng
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wu Pin-jui
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wu Pin-jui
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chu Ting-yu
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chu Ting-yu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tsai Sung-yi
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tsai Sung-yi
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Polymarket
Lin Shih-hsien
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lin Shih-hsien
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chiu Chien-fu
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chiu Chien-fu
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Huang Hsiu-fang
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Huang Hsiu-fang
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Polymarket
Lin Szu-ming
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lin Szu-ming
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chen Chien-hsien
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chen Chien-hsien
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Hung Jung-chang
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hung Jung-chang
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: db.cec.gov.tw
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Taiwan
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chen Su-yueh
  • Tsai Yi-yu
  • Cheng Chao-fang

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Chen Su-yueh for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hsinchu County magistrate election winner?". Chen Su-yueh leads at 91.5%. Next is Tsai Yi-yu at 90%. $48K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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