The Prediction Markets

Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Mar 1, 2027 41%

Next is November 30 at 30.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 19, 2026
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 19, 2026
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 21, 2026
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 21, 2026
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Mar 1, 2027
  • November 30
  • December 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Mar 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?". Before Mar 1, 2027 leads at 41%. Next is November 30 at 30.5%. $8K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hung Cao is confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of the Navy by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hung Cao's nomination is formally withdrawn, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Secretary of the Navy for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Hung Cao's service as Acting Secretary of the Navy will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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