The Prediction Markets

Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Abby McKibben 37.6%

Next is Mark Jessop at 29.1%. The venues differ most on Mark Jessop (Polymarket 23%, Kalshi 29%), a 6.0-point gap.

Abby McKibben 37.6%Mark Jessop 29.1%Paul Gibson 27.7%Marshall Callaghan 2.3%Sally Doyle 2%Toby Thorpe 1.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Abby McKibben
37.6%
Polymarket 31.5%(38.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%(36.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abby McKibben
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abby McKibben
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
36.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.

Mark Jessop
29.1%
Polymarket 23%(28.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%(31.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Jessop
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
28.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Jessop
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
31.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Paul Gibson
27.7%
Polymarket 23%(28.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 24%(25.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Gibson
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
28.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Gibson
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
25.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Marshall Callaghan
2.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall Callaghan
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall Callaghan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Sally Doyle
2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sally Doyle
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toby Thorpe
1.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toby Thorpe
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Abby McKibben
  • Mark Jessop
  • Paul Gibson

Live prices for Abby McKibben

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner". Abby McKibben leads at 37.6%. Next is Mark Jessop at 29.1%. $41K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Huon Valley Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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