The Prediction Markets

Hurricane Vance category?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Category 1 or above 96.5%

Next is Category 2 or above at 88%. The venues differ most on Category 5 or above (Polymarket 5%, Kalshi 7%), a 2.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Category 1 or above
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Category 1 or above
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Category 2 or above
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Category 2 or above
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Category 3 or above
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Category 3 or above
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Kalshi
Category 3
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Category 3
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Polymarket
Category 4 or above
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Category 4 or above
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Category 4
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Category 4
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket
Category 2
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Category 2
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Polymarket
Category 1 or weaker
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Category 1 or weaker
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Polymarket
Category 5 or above
6.4%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Category 5
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Category 5 or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Outcome ranges differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi lists cumulative rungs ('Category 3 or above'); Polymarket lists exact peak categories. Only Category 5 is the same contract; other Kalshi rungs equal sums of Polymarket buckets.
  • Polymarket uses the category in NHC public advisories; Kalshi uses maximum sustained winds.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nhc.noaa.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi lists cumulative rungs ('Category 3 or above'); Polymarket lists exact peak categories. Only Category 5 is the same contract; other Kalshi rungs equal sums of Polymarket buckets.
  • Polymarket uses the category in NHC public advisories; Kalshi uses maximum sustained winds.
  • Trading closes Nov 5, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Category 1 or above
  • Category 2 or above
  • Category 3 or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Category 1 or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hurricane Vance category?". Category 1 or above leads at 96.5%. Next is Category 2 or above at 88%. $4K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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