The Prediction Markets

ID-02 House election: Mike Simpson vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 52% 95%

Next is At least 54% at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 52%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 55s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 62%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 62%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 64%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 64%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 66%
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 66%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 68%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 68%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Idaho Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 52%
  • At least 54%
  • At least 56%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ID-02 House election: Mike Simpson vote percent". At least 52% leads at 95%. Next is At least 54% at 88%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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