The Prediction Markets

Idaho Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Little, 15+ pts 87.8%

Next is Little, 18+ pts at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Little, 15+ pts
87.8%
Kalshi 87.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 15+ pts
Last price
87.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.5¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 18+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 18+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 21+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 21+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 24+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 24+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 27+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 27+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 30+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 30+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$507
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Little, 33+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 33+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
11.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 35-40%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Little, 36+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 36+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi
Little, 39+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 39+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Little, 42+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Little, 42+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40-45%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$657
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Little, 15+ pts
  • Little, 18+ pts
  • Little, 21+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Little, 15+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Idaho Governor margin of victory". Little, 15+ pts leads at 87.8%. Next is Little, 18+ pts at 78%. $30K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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