The Prediction Markets

Idaho Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Risch, 3+ pts 91.5%

Next is Risch, 5+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Risch, 3+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 3+ pts
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 5+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 5+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 9+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 9+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 7+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 7+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 11+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 11+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$666
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 13+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 13+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$535
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 15+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 15+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 17+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 17+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 19+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 19+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Risch, 21+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 21+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Risch, 23+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 23+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 25+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 25+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent Wins
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Independent Wins
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Risch, 27+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 27+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 29+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 29+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 31+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 31+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 35+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 35+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 39+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 39+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Risch, 33+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 33+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Risch, 37+ pts
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risch, 37+ pts
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Risch, 3+ pts
  • Risch, 5+ pts
  • Risch, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Risch, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Idaho Senate margin of victory". Risch, 3+ pts leads at 91.5%. Next is Risch, 5+ pts at 90.1%. $32K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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