The Prediction Markets

Idaho's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Fulcher, 24+ pts 88%

Next is Fulcher, 27+ pts at 72.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fulcher, 24+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 24+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Fulcher, 27+ pts
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 27+ pts
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fulcher, 30+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 30+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Fulcher, 33+ pts
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 33+ pts
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fulcher, 36+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 36+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.3¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$546 (5.46x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fulcher, 39+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 39+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Fulcher, 42+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 42+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-20%
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fulcher, 45+ pts
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 45+ pts
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Kalshi
Fulcher, 48+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fulcher, 48+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-10%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$954
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fulcher, 24+ pts
  • Fulcher, 27+ pts
  • Fulcher, 30+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Fulcher, 24+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Idaho's 1st District margin of victory". Fulcher, 24+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Fulcher, 27+ pts at 72.5%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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