The Prediction Markets

Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Simpson, 9+ pts 94.5%

Next is Republican 10-15% at 91.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Simpson, 9+ pts
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 9+ pts
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
91.9%
Polymarket 91.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 93.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
91.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
93.4¢
Sell Yes
90.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Simpson, 12+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 12+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 15+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 15+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 21+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 90.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 21+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
90.9¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 18+ pts
44.6%
Kalshi 44.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 18+ pts
Last price
44.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 24+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 24+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 33+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 33+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 30+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 30+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
Simpson, 27+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simpson, 27+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 5-10%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Idaho Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Simpson, 9+ pts
  • Republican 10-15%
  • Simpson, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Simpson, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory". Simpson, 9+ pts leads at 94.5%. Next is Republican 10-15% at 91.9%. $22K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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