The Prediction Markets

IEM Beijing 2026: Winner

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
7 h ago
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What the markets expect

MOUZ 40%

Next is Natus Vincere at 23.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

MOUZ 40%Natus Vincere 23.6%FURIA 15.9%BetBoom 8.7%PARIVISION 7.2%The MongolZ 4.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
MOUZ
40%
Polymarket 41.5%(40% fair)polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
MOUZ
Last price
41.5%
Fair, margin removed
40%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Natus Vincere
23.6%
Polymarket 24.5%(23.6% fair)polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natus Vincere
Last price
24.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.6%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
FURIA
15.9%
Polymarket 16.5%(15.9% fair)polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
FURIA
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Polymarket
BetBoom
8.7%
Polymarket 9%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
BetBoom
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
PARIVISION
7.2%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
PARIVISION
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
The MongolZ
4.6%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The MongolZ
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: hltv.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • MOUZ
  • Natus Vincere
  • FURIA

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "IEM Beijing 2026: Winner". MOUZ leads at 40%. Next is Natus Vincere at 23.6%. $18K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of IEM Beijing 2026, currently scheduled for November 2, 2026 to November 8, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after December 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be HLTV (https://www.hltv.org/events/8245/iem-beijing-2026); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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