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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
BTS 62%
Next is Taylor Swift at 32%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
BTS62%62%58¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 58s ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)BTS62%Kalshi 62%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
BTS
62%
62%
58¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
BTS
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BTS
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $1K
Taylor Swift32%32%24¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 58s ago32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Taylor Swift32%Kalshi 32%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Taylor Swift
32%
32%
24¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Taylor Swift
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Swift
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $4K
Bad Bunny8%8%2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 58s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Bad Bunny8%Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bad Bunny
8%
8%
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Bad Bunny
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bad Bunny
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $576
Drake8%8%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 58s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Drake8%Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Drake
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Drake
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drake
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $199
Morgan Wallen5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 58s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Morgan Wallen5%Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Morgan Wallen
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Morgan Wallen
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Morgan Wallen
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $232
Ariana Grande4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Ariana Grande4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ariana Grande
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ariana Grande
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ariana Grande
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $193
Billie Eilish4%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Billie Eilish4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Billie Eilish
4%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Billie Eilish
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billie Eilish
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $62
Eminem4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Eminem4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Eminem
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Eminem
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eminem
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $527
Justin Bieber4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Justin Bieber4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Justin Bieber
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Justin Bieber
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Bieber
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $121
Kendrick Lamar4%4%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 58s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Kendrick Lamar4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kendrick Lamar
4%
4%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kendrick Lamar
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kendrick Lamar
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $204
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
Lady Gaga4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Lady Gaga4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lady Gaga
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lady Gaga
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lady Gaga
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $68
Mrs. GREEN APPLE4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Mrs. GREEN APPLE4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mrs. GREEN APPLE
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mrs. GREEN APPLE
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mrs. GREEN APPLE
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $43
Sabrina Carpenter4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Sabrina Carpenter4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sabrina Carpenter
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Sabrina Carpenter
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sabrina Carpenter
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $54
Stray Kids4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Stray Kids4%Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Stray Kids
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Stray Kids
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stray Kids
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $90
The Weeknd2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)The Weeknd2%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
The Weeknd
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
The Weeknd
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Weeknd
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $40
Zach Bryan2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Zach Bryan2%Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Zach Bryan
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Zach Bryan
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zach Bryan
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $39
Adele1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Adele1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Adele
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Adele
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Adele
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $38
Ed Sheeran1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Ed Sheeran1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ed Sheeran
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ed Sheeran
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ed Sheeran
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $38
Linkin Park1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Linkin Park1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Linkin Park
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Linkin Park
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Linkin Park
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $63
SEVENTEEN1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)SEVENTEEN1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SEVENTEEN
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SEVENTEEN
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SEVENTEEN
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $63
SZA1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)SZA1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SZA
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SZA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SZA
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $38
Tyler, The Creator1%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 58s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Tyler, The Creator1%Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tyler, The Creator
1%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tyler, The Creator
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tyler, The Creator
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $38
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IFPI
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- BTS
- Taylor Swift
- Bad Bunny
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of 2026?". BTS leads at 62%. Next is Taylor Swift at 32%. $8K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 28, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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