The Prediction Markets

Illinois 07 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 140K 95.5%

Next is Above 150K at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 140K
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140K
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150K
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170K
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190K
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 140K
  • Above 150K
  • Above 160K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois 07 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 140K leads at 95.5%. Next is Above 150K at 94%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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