The Prediction Markets

Illinois Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Stratton, 9+ pts 94.9%

Next is Stratton, 11+ pts at 88%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stratton, 9+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 9+ pts
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 11+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 11+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90.2¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 13+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 13+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 15+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 15+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 17+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 17+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 19+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 19+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 21+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 21+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Stratton, 23+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 23+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stratton, 25+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 25+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Stratton, 27+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 27+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Polymarket
Stratton, 29+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 29+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $658 (6.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$335
Trade this on Polymarket
Stratton, 31+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stratton, 31+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stratton, 9+ pts
  • Stratton, 11+ pts
  • Stratton, 13+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Stratton, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois Senate margin of victory". Stratton, 9+ pts leads at 94.9%. Next is Stratton, 11+ pts at 88%. $8K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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