The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 11th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Foster, 8+ pts 92.4%

Next is Foster, 11+ pts at 90.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Foster, 8+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 8+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.5¢
Sell Yes
92.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 11+ pts
90.6%
Kalshi 90.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 11+ pts
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
90.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 14+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 14+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 17+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 17+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 20+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 20+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 23+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 23+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 26+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 26+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 29+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 29+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Foster, 32+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 32+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 15-20%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Foster, 35+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 35+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster, 38+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster, 38+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35%+
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Foster, 8+ pts
  • Foster, 11+ pts
  • Foster, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Foster, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 11th District margin of victory". Foster, 8+ pts leads at 92.4%. Next is Foster, 11+ pts at 90.6%. $22K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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