The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 12th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bost, 23+ pts 95.5%

Next is Bost, 26+ pts at 91%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bost, 23+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 23+ pts
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 26+ pts
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 26+ pts
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 29+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 29+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 32+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 32+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 35+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 35+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 38+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 38+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bost, 41+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 41+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bost, 44+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 44+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Bost, 47+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 47+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
13.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bost, 50+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bost, 50+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-20%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bost, 23+ pts
  • Bost, 26+ pts
  • Bost, 29+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bost, 23+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 12th District margin of victory". Bost, 23+ pts leads at 95.5%. Next is Bost, 26+ pts at 91%. $28K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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