The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Budzinski, 9+ pts 90.4%

Next is Budzinski, 12+ pts at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Budzinski, 9+ pts
90.4%
Kalshi 90.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 9+ pts
Last price
90.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
90.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 12+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 12+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 15+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 15+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 18+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 18+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 21+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 21+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 24+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 24+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Budzinski, 27+ pts
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 27+ pts
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Budzinski, 30+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 30+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Budzinski, 33+ pts
10.1%
Kalshi 10.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budzinski, 33+ pts
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$948
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Budzinski, 9+ pts
  • Budzinski, 12+ pts
  • Budzinski, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Budzinski, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 13th District margin of victory". Budzinski, 9+ pts leads at 90.4%. Next is Budzinski, 12+ pts at 87%. $16K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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