The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 14th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Underwood, 5+ pts 86%

Next is Underwood, 8+ pts at 82.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Underwood, 5+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 5+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 8+ pts
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 8+ pts
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 11+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 11+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 14+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 14+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 17+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 17+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 20+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 20+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Underwood, 23+ pts
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 23+ pts
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Underwood, 26+ pts
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 26+ pts
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Underwood, 29+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Underwood, 29+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 18.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $543 (5.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$543 (5.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Underwood, 5+ pts
  • Underwood, 8+ pts
  • Underwood, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Underwood, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 14th District margin of victory". Underwood, 5+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Underwood, 8+ pts at 82.5%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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