The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 15th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Miller, 21+ pts 88%

Next is Miller, 24+ pts at 80.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Miller, 21+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 21+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 24+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 24+ pts
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 27+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 27+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 30+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 30+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 33+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 33+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 47.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $211 (2.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47.4¢
Sell Yes
32.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$211 (2.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 36+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 36+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 39+ pts
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 39+ pts
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Miller, 42+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 42+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 45+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 45+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-20%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Miller, 21+ pts
  • Miller, 24+ pts
  • Miller, 27+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Miller, 21+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 15th District margin of victory". Miller, 21+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Miller, 24+ pts at 80.5%. $25K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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