The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 16th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

LaHood, 6+ pts 88%

Next is LaHood, 9+ pts at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
LaHood, 6+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 97.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 6+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 9+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 92.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 9+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.8¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 12+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 12+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 15+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 15+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$545
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 18+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 18+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 21+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 21+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
LaHood, 24+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 24+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 5-10%
18.8%
Polymarket 18.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
18.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
17.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
LaHood, 27+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 27+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
LaHood, 30+ pts
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaHood, 30+ pts
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • LaHood, 6+ pts
  • LaHood, 9+ pts
  • LaHood, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list LaHood, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 16th District margin of victory". LaHood, 6+ pts leads at 88%. Next is LaHood, 9+ pts at 81%. $21K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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