The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 17th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Sorensen, 3+ pts 89%

Next is Sorensen, 6+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Sorensen, 3+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 95.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 3+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.6¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 6+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 6+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 9+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 9+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 12+ pts
62.5%
Kalshi 62.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 12+ pts
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 15+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 15+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 18+ pts
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 18+ pts
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sorensen, 21+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 21+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
22.1%
Polymarket 22.1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $407 (4.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
22.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.6¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$407 (4.07x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Sorensen, 24+ pts
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 24+ pts
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$875
Trade this on Polymarket
Sorensen, 27+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sorensen, 27+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sorensen, 3+ pts
  • Sorensen, 6+ pts
  • Sorensen, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Sorensen, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 17th District margin of victory". Sorensen, 3+ pts leads at 89%. Next is Sorensen, 6+ pts at 83%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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