The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Jackson, 26+ pts 90.1%

Next is Jackson, 29+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jackson, 26+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 26+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 29+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 29+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 32+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 32+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 35+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 35+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 38+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 38+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 41+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 41+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson, 44+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 44+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $361 (3.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.7¢
Sell Yes
20.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$361 (3.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Jackson, 47+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 47+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
15.4%
Polymarket 15.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
15.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson, 50+ pts
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson, 50+ pts
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-25%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-25%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55%+
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55%+
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-15%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-15%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jackson, 26+ pts
  • Jackson, 29+ pts
  • Jackson, 32+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Jackson, 26+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 1st District margin of victory". Jackson, 26+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Jackson, 29+ pts at 85%. $31K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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