The Prediction Markets

Illinois's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Miller, 28+ pts 93.9%

Next is Miller, 31+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Miller, 28+ pts
93.9%
Kalshi 93.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 28+ pts
Last price
93.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
93.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 31+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 31+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 34+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 34+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 37+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 37+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 40+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 40+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 43+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 43+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
35.2%
Polymarket 35.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $269 (2.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
35.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37.2¢
Sell Yes
33.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$269 (2.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 46+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 46+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Miller, 49+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 49+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 52+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 52+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-15%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-15%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-25%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-25%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$786
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$877
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Illinois State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Miller, 28+ pts
  • Miller, 31+ pts
  • Miller, 34+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Miller, 28+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 2nd District margin of victory". Miller, 28+ pts leads at 93.9%. Next is Miller, 31+ pts at 84%. $21K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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