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What the markets expect
Quigley, 31+ pts 97.3%
Next is Quigley, 34+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Quigley, 31+ pts97.3%Not listed97.3%91.1¢ bid, 97.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Quigley, 31+ pts97.3%Kalshi 97.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Quigley, 31+ pts
97.3%
Not listed
97.3%
91.1¢ bid, 97.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Quigley, 31+ pts
97.3%
Kalshi 97.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 31+ pts
- Last price
- 97.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 91.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $3K
Quigley, 34+ pts84%Not listed84%83¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 min ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Quigley, 34+ pts84%Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Quigley, 34+ pts
84%
Not listed
84%
83¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Quigley, 34+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 34+ pts
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $1K
Quigley, 37+ pts76%Not listed76%76¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 1 min ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Quigley, 37+ pts76%Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Quigley, 37+ pts
76%
Not listed
76%
76¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Quigley, 37+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 37+ pts
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $58
Quigley, 40+ pts65%Not listed65%64¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 1 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Quigley, 40+ pts65%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Quigley, 40+ pts
65%
Not listed
65%
64¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Quigley, 40+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 40+ pts
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $385
Quigley, 43+ pts53%Not listed53%50¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Quigley, 43+ pts53%Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Quigley, 43+ pts
53%
Not listed
53%
50¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Quigley, 43+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 43+ pts
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
Quigley, 46+ pts39.5%Not listed39.5%34¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 1 min ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Quigley, 46+ pts39.5%Kalshi 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Quigley, 46+ pts
39.5%
Not listed
39.5%
34¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Quigley, 46+ pts
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 46+ pts
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Democrat 50-55%29.6%29.6%26.6¢ bid, 32.6¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed32.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $307 (3.07x)Democrat 50-55%29.6%Polymarket 29.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $307 (3.07x)
Democrat 50-55%
29.6%
29.6%
26.6¢ bid, 32.6¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
32.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $307 (3.07x)
Democrat 50-55%
29.6%
Polymarket 29.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $307 (3.07x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 50-55%
- Last price
- 29.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 26.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $307 (3.07x)
- Volume
- $4K
Democrat 45-50%26.5%26.5%25¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Democrat 45-50%26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Democrat 45-50%
26.5%
26.5%
25¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
28¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Democrat 45-50%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 45-50%
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $4K
Quigley, 49+ pts25.5%Not listed25.5%20¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Quigley, 49+ pts25.5%Kalshi 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Quigley, 49+ pts
25.5%
Not listed
25.5%
20¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Quigley, 49+ pts
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 49+ pts
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Quigley, 52+ pts18%Not listed18%8¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Quigley, 52+ pts18%Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Quigley, 52+ pts
18%
Not listed
18%
8¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Quigley, 52+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 52+ pts
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $38
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Democrat 40-45%13%13%11¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Democrat 40-45%13%Polymarket 13%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 40-45%
13%
13%
11¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 40-45%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 40-45%
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $5K
Quigley, 55+ pts10%Not listed10%0.1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Quigley, 55+ pts10%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Quigley, 55+ pts
10%
Not listed
10%
0.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Quigley, 55+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quigley, 55+ pts
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $314
Democrat 35-40%6.7%6.7%5.3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Democrat 35-40%6.7%Polymarket 6.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Democrat 35-40%
6.7%
6.7%
5.3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Democrat 35-40%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 35-40%
- Last price
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 55-60%5.7%5.7%3.4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Democrat 55-60%5.7%Polymarket 5.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Democrat 55-60%
5.7%
5.7%
3.4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Democrat 55-60%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 55-60%
- Last price
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Democrat 30-35%3.8%3.8%0.9¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed6.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)Democrat 30-35%3.8%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Democrat 30-35%
3.8%
3.8%
0.9¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
6.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Democrat 30-35%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 30-35%
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 60%+1.9%1.9%0.4¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed3.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)Democrat 60%+1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Democrat 60%+
1.9%
1.9%
0.4¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
3.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Democrat 60%+
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 60%+
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $690
Democrat 20-30%1.7%1.7%0.3¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Democrat 20-30%1.7%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Democrat 20-30%
1.7%
1.7%
0.3¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Democrat 20-30%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 20-30%
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 0-20%0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Democrat 0-20%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Democrat 0-20%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Democrat 0-20%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-20%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $1K
Republican Wins0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Republican Wins0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Republican Wins
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Wins
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $589
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Quigley, 31+ pts
- Quigley, 34+ pts
- Quigley, 37+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Quigley, 31+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Illinois's 5th District margin of victory". Quigley, 31+ pts leads at 97.3%. Next is Quigley, 34+ pts at 84%. $25K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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